Government data shows physical disability certificate holders peaked at 5.25 million in 2013, then fell to 4.78 million by 2023, erasing nearly a deca

Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan website (https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).

from Japan For almost fifty years, Japan's social welfare administrators have tracked the number of physically disabled persons holding official certificates—a dataset that doubles as a demographic barometer.

The Statistics Bureau's annual tally, stretching from 1975 to 2023, records not just prevalence but the interplay of aging, policy, and recognition of disability.

A rising curve that reversed after 2013 The total climbed from 2,132,043 in 1975 to a peak of 5,252,242 in 2013, a 124 percent increase .

By 2023, however, the number had slipped to 4,783,069 , down nearly half a million from the apex. The average annual figure across all 49 years sat at roughly 4,029,092 persons.

The plateau before the fall Growth decelerated markedly in the early 2010s; the 2013 record was only marginally above the 2012 count of 5,231,570 .

After 2013, the decline became persistent—annual drops averaged about 1 percent, slowly erasing growth that had accumulated over the previous decade.

What a decade of decline means for welfare planning By 2023, the certificate count had retreated to roughly its 2010 level, effectively wiping out thirteen years of net expansion.

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